Are we going to eat.

[Leocam]

What is your prediction for work in the coming year. Do you think it will slow or busy, etc.. And what industry do you think will be busiest, for instance aerospace, military, commerical, etc.. and why.

Your replies would be appreciated.

I think this could make for an intersting discussion.

I will add my own input a little later.

 

Leo Babic

Manufacturing Manager

Marketing Representitive (part-time)

SBPMI

tel. (818) 613-9980

[Chips Ahoy]

I don't see things picking-up too soon. I have enrolled in some college classes to make up some money I am losing in overtime. Since my company will pay for the classes as long as they are work related. We are trying to do many things to get more business in the door. Ex. Cut lead times for prototypes. Job out more production jobs to shops with lower overhead to give us some more room for short leadtime protos. Things are very slow in my shop right now. I have been here for 14 years and have never seen things this slow. Rick

[limitless creativity]

We will eat. It's just what we'll eat, beans, or steak. lol

I still see as OK until March, then it will pick up, through Sept, Oct.

That is my input, Many shops are still busy.

To get the economy going people have to move money, SPEND,SPEND, BUY,BUY

Mike

[Guest CNC Apps Guy 1]

I certainly did my part this Christmas, errrrr, my wife did.

[Guest CNC Apps Guy 1]

Ooops, I forgot to comment. That's GOT to be a first. LOL!

I see aerospace picking up. Business/Commuter class jets are selling better than the big 'uns. Companies that do Aircraft Interiors are going to have a surge due to cockpit door modifications.

Defense will pick up due to the JSF Project, though I would imagine most of the work will stay in the Texas, Georgia and California regions, with some airframe being picked up by Boeing in St. Louis.

These are just my predictions, I don't have any "insider" information so don't take this as gospel. This is just me hearing buzz here and there and forming my own opinion/theory. We'll see how things pan out. I believe the economy as a whole will begin to pick up again in late spring. I must say this "recession" is not nearly as bad to me and my family as the recession in the early 80's. Things were really bad for us. We were not starving but, my parents racked up a substantial amount of debt trying to make ends meet. As an observation, it seems like every single store I go into this season is packed, why am I only hearing negative stuff in the news?

JMHO

[Leocam]

JSF JSF JSF That's all I keep hearing that our industry (machining) will pick-up because of the JSF. But are you guys aware that the first delivery of the JSF Fighter is not going to be until approx. 2008 if not later and the first delivery is for approx. 8 planes.

8 planes give me a break, how many parts are in 8 planes. JSF program will not be in full production, meaning about 200 - 400 planes a year until about 2014 - 2020.

The only thing JSF will do is provide about 5,000 - 10,000 engineering and other various job positions. Which is great. But as far as work for us guys I don't see it making any kind of difference, at least not until much later.

Although I believe defense spending will increase. That may not mean much for most of us. The reason being is except for JSF and couple of other programs there really is not anything new. Meaning that increase in defense spending would just mean more purchasing of the old stuff and unless you already have contracts or have made any of those parts that have been around for the last 20- 40 years. It will not really affect you.

All I hope for is that the commericial industry will rebound. Hopefully people start getting on planes again and Boeing figures out a way to beat out Airbus. James, I think your right. I've talked to some people at private jet manufacturing companies, Like GulfStream and according to them their production of planes has not really been affected by Sept. 11, as matter of fact they forecast an increase in production over next couple of years.

All I can say is that while I think there will be an incease in defense spending, I don't see that affecting us to much. But I sincerely "hope" I'm wrong.

I think this will be a very intersting year. Hopefully we will all be eating filetmignons and not "SPAM" (yuck). So I'm stumped about the comimg year, I'm just not sure and that's why I was looking for some of your opinions.

If anyone has anything else to add please do. Remarks/insults/opinions are welcomed.

Respectfully,

Leo Babic

[Guest CNC Apps Guy 1]

I know of a company getting JSF stuff right now. It may be for the initial few planes but hey it's a start. I don't think the majority of shops in SoCal will even see a single JSF part. Most of it will go t a few select subs that have the proven track record to perform.

JMHO