risk assessment

[Camdude®]

do any of you guys have a risk assessment tool for quoting jobs. i am looking for a system that allows us to assign a number to a feature on a part so we can accurately assess the risk factors when making a part. right now i am running into situations were they demand a quick turnaround for a quote but then balk when we run into production issues because we didn't take the time to accurately assess the part.

[Guest CNC Apps Guy 1]

Not heard of that before but, sounds like a good idea.

 

Usually the very first thing I look at is Material, then I eagle eye the tolerances, after than I look for small inside radii, custom form tools, etc...

 

Asessing a risk factor to a feature may be a nice way to flag that stuff.

[Mike-T]

PFMEA ?

[YoDoug®]

As per our AS9100 risk assesment clause in our AS9100 cert doc we assign a color (5 colors to choose) that the job traveller and quality docs are printed on. Each color means a different level of risk. There is no formula that I am aware of that determines the risk level though, it is a subjective assesment.

 

I suppose you could make a formula/spreadsheet that would give you a risk number based on criteria such as material cost/part, number of parts, number of operation, tolerance, outside processes, etc.

[Odell]

+1 PFMEA

[Camdude®]

thanks guys i will try pfmea

[MotorCityMinion]

Perhaps http://dfmpro.geometricglobal.com/

 

Not really risk management but a good tool none the less.

[Ron Branch @ Verisurf]

I have always just said quote it as $1000/hr. Then come up with a total. Take the material and multiple it by 100. Then take that total and double it and tell them 104 weeks. Another one I use is $1 million each. Then it gets everyone's attention it might be one to not do.

 

Here are some links to those wanting to know about

 

PFMEA LINK 1

 

NASA PFMEA PDF Link

 

Links to Images

 

HTH

[Dave.L]

quote:

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i am running into situations were they demand a quick turnaround for a quote but then balk when we run into production issues because we didn't take the time to accurately assess the part

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Doing what the other have suggested is not going to get your quick quotes, which seems to be the issue. If you take the time and do a well though out quote (like I know you want) then your problems are solved.

 

Instead of risk assessment, demonstrate to your management that fast quotes lead to lost revenue.

 

That is language they should understand

[Ron Branch @ Verisurf]

Dave, I have showed management at one company I worked for a job that had over 1000 hours in it had a shop rate of $9.17 hour when were suppose to be be getting $125/hr. I was told to shut my mouth and not to do that again. I was the shop foreman so what does that tell you?

[Dave.L]

quote:

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Dave, I have showed management at one company I worked for a job that had over 1000 hours in it had a shop rate of $9.17 hour when were suppose to be be getting $125/hr. I was told to shut my mouth and not to do that again. I was the shop foreman so what does that tell you?

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Find a new job, but I see you did

[Ron Branch @ Verisurf]

Yeah sure did. Funny things happen when you start showing people the real cost of doing business. Most owners don't want to know the real cost they just want you to say we are making money. When you tell them the truth and look out for the best interest most I have run into hate it. I always keep a running number in my head so when the why aren't we making money or why did we lose money on this job come up then I just present the facts and it just seems to go away after that.

[Dave.L]

quote:

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Most owners don't want to know the real cost they just want you to say we are making money.

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Ron,

 

I know lots of business owners, manufacturing and many other areas and I have never found this to be true.

 

But, these are your experiences, not mine. The owners I know are very involved with the details of reality and that's why they are successful.

[Ron Branch @ Verisurf]

quote:

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The owners I know are very involved with the details of reality and that's why they are successful.

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That was why they were and are.

 

Well Dave I have worked in over 35 shops and that has been my experience in most of them. Notice I have been in so many big reason why. I am not wasting my talents on a place that was going no where. 15 of those shops have since closed their doors. No I think about it I think over 20 have closed their doors.

[Dave.L]

Over 35 shops, what are you like 40-45? Are you changing jobs every 3 months?

 

Employees lasting only 3 months, no wonder they closed up

[Ron Branch @ Verisurf]

Nope I am only 37, but worked since I was 16 in the and around the trade. I did my fist mill and lathe work at the age of 14. Funny some of the longest places I have worked our my current jobs. #1 V & M 4 years next month. #2 3 years my own company 5th axis programming. #3 Verisurf software 2 years in October. I have 1 hour at 4 places, 1 week at 3 places and less than 3 months at 7 places. That was all before I was 28 if that gives you an idea with more. Then I have 3 years at 2 places on top of what I got now. I have 1-1-2 years at 3 places. I did work 3 jobs part times through High School. In one year I think I worked 10 different places. Quit most, got fired from 2 and few got laid off. Life is what you make it and most people look at my resume and shake their head. Funny most of the people I have worked for respect me and I respect them. That is part of the risk assessment that needs to be considered for work not only for the shops but for employees and employers alike. Some people are a fit and some people are not. Like jobs some jobs are good for shops and some jobs are not.

 

I tell people this story. If you were in the business of lawn care and decided to start building house you can not take the business model of cutting lawns to the model of building homes. They are 2 totally different animals. Same thing with machine shops some of the sharpest business people suck at running machine shops and some of the sharpest machinist suck at running machine shops. I always say it takes a special talent to run any company, but a machine shop requires a special type of skill and talnet where you have to be brave, smart, cunning, skillful, willing to take chances, not willing to take chance. Know when you are being B.S and how to B.S. where it is important to talk the talk and walk the walk and then in the same breathe be humble enough to listen to the one that walks a little better and talks a little better to hear them. It is all a balance and those who run businesses well understand the nuances of personalities, business, money, ownership, and so many other factors it is not crazy. Risk assessment it an art just like anything and sure there are tools to make it hard or make it easy, but most times it comes down to a gut feeling and taking true knowledge and experience and giving the best picture you can. Most people want some formula, but a good planner, quoter, machinist, programmer and get it done person can do that spot on. Problem is most people never want to listen to the facts, they only want to hear what they want to hear. They think some formula makes it more official when most times it is just some wild a$$ guess that looks good on paper from some program that really knows no better than my 9 year old daughter.

 

Of course what do I know I am that crazy guy that has worked in 35 different shops that's resume looks like crap on paper.

[Ron Branch @ Verisurf]

Take 3 jobs on the board right now. Cutting 62 RC I wonder how much that was quoted that for? Drill deep holes in 316 SS, wonder if they were quoted at 15 seconds a hole? Needs to cut a smaller radius in the corners. Does anything think the people who quoted the jobs asked the guys who had to do them what they thought that is risk assessment? Do you think the real cost was considered? If anyone of those people were to tell their owners about the problems they are having because of someone else mistakes of lack of thought they really want to hear it? Get it done and get it done now I already promised the customer those parts is probably what most of the people on this board here.

[McLaren]

+1 Ron

[GoetzInd]

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Drill deep holes in 316 SS, wonder if they were quoted at 15 seconds a hole?

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We lucked out on this one. Customer told us they were edming it currently so we know they were spending some $. But I def see your point Ron.

 

Mike

[Mr. Wizzard]

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Get it done and get it done now I already promised the customer those parts is probably what most of the people on this board here.

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Ding! Ding! Ding!

 

hear that on almost every job!

 

Also, "What's taking so long? I quoted this job at 30 hours!"

 

Nice how people quoting jobs don't know anything about turning or machining hardened steel.....

[Dave.L]

quote:

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Ding! Ding! Ding!

 

hear that on almost every job!

 

Also, "What's taking so long? I quoted this job at 30 hours!"

 

Nice how people quoting jobs don't know anything about turning or machining hardened steel.....

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Each company operates different. Any company that has people quoting that don't know the manufacturing process is just destine for failure.

 

I will give you guy's another perspective. I do all the quoting for my business, small shop. Even before I worked in the shop I had a good understanding of what it takes to do the work since I have been around it as an engineer my entire life. BTW, I am an engineer that gets his hands dirty. On many occasions, with many different employees, when I brought them into the quoting process usually one of two things happened.

 

1) They totally over quoted to CYA. This activity will close the doors very fast.

2) They did not want to take responsibility for the outcome.

 

In summary, the grass is always greener on the other side of the fence. I have been an employee, so I know that side. But, until you have been an owner, don’t be so quick to judge those that provide a place for you to work and a paycheck. And, in defense of both sides, this work is NOT easy, and it really does not pay what it should for the talent needed, the equipment and so on. That alone, makes quoting very difficult.

[Matthew Hajicek - Singularity]

quote:

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Also, "What's taking so long? I quoted this job at 30 hours!"

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Don't you just love doing the final op on a part that's already two weeks overdue when it gets to you? That's what lost me my last job.

[MotorCityMinion]

How about running a job that's late and has already been scrapped twice by others in the process? Owner's already PO'd and a bullseye is on you.

[Newbeeee™]

Very wise words Ron.

 

Dave, where I used to work, the owner would look over our shoulders at our quoting, and with a pen put a line through it and write HIS figure to be sumitted (usually at least 30% less than ours).

He would then stand there and say 'I think we'll win it at that' and nod his head agreeing to himself.

We used to argue and say the obvious (doesn't even cover consumables etc), and he used to get all firey thowing the ef's into us.

In the end, when he used to say 'I think we'll win it at that', we used to say 'Yes, I think we will', and he used to go away with a smile on his face as he had beaten his engineering dept down and 'won' by getting them to agree with him.

Regularly he used to kick the door open into the department shouting that 'this job is effing killing me because you lot are taking too long'.

 

Not suprisingly he's gone bankrupt twice for $5.5 mil, and is wellllll on his way to make it a hatrick.

[Matthew Hajicek - Singularity]

Yup. Many seem to forget that you don't want a job that you'll lose money on. Bid it where you need to to make money; if they won't pay that then you don't want the job.