O/T job shops

[Robby GM]

here is article in freepress

about past and fucture of job shops

 

Free press

[Code_Breaker]

I just left a shop in October because there was no work schedule for Nov or Dec. I was their engineering manager and been there 12 yrs. After speaking with the shop foreman this morning, they only have minor repair work. Like the article said, "wait until January."

[cadcam]

This artical just kills me.

I am seeing alot of shops out here in Cali on there way out to.

 

I think me jumping out of tool makeing as a full time carrier and open my self to other typs of manufacturing was a good one.

[Müřlıń®]

I am in the same boat as the rest of these poor sould in this artical.

 

After being self employed for almost 2 decades, I will be closing my toolshop this year.

 

About the only thing I have going for me is that I saw it comming 5 years ago and did everything I could to dissolve any debt I had.

 

About the only ones who came out of this deal are the Machine tool manufacturers.

They devourer us like locusts and now are moving on to the other countries.

 

 

Murlin

[Scott Bond]

If anything can go right , it will at the best possible moment.

 

 

My truck's license plate "FKCHNA"

[Jack Mitchell]

Merlin,

 

quote:

---

After being self employed for almost 2 decades, I will be closing my toolshop this year.

---

Same boat as your'e in, I'm a little older, hopefully a little wiser, and most definately humbled.

 

My garage is rather large and employes only one or two; which is probably the way that I think you will go as well.

 

P.S. I'll always be self employed amoung other things - Truth be known I am probably a little more dangerous from the long learning curve from 1989 till today.

 

 

Regards, Jack

 

[ 01-02-2004, 12:57 PM: Message edited by: Jack Mitchell ]

[Todd Patterson]

quote:

---

The dies and tools they make can take up to six months to build at a cost of $35,000 to $500,000 or more. These toolmakers don't get paid while they are making them -- and often must wait several more months until the end user is happy that the tool is making the product to the proper quality.

---

When the company that I last worked for started sending out to China they were required to pay for their tooling in full before work began. How's that for fair trade.

[Jack Mitchell]

Todd,

 

With all due respect - China is just another country that produces manufactured goods at 6% of the cost as opposed to America.

Even if their wages doubled or tripled - it wont make any differance at all. Basically, once a customer shops this market and can appreciate a reasonable quality/delivery expectation, then the customer is gone.

 

China is not the bogeyman here, so complaining or arguing protectionism will not garner a sympathetic response - sadly, anger is all that is left.

 

Rolling with the punches and learning to adapt to a different manufacturing climate is exactly what we have to do; else were going to end up asking customers if they would like some fries with their order.

 

Please don't get me wrong, I'm not bashing you at all - it's just we hear this argument almost weekly.

 

Respectfully yours... Jack

[gcode]

A lot of these Chinese die shops are running bootleg Mastercam. Does Mastercam even have a

licensed reseller in China???

[Charles Davis]

Jack, you make some great points.

 

I heard a statistic the other day (from a credible source) that manufacturing employment in China has dropped 15% in the last 10 years. One reason mfg employment is dropping is mfg's are becoming more efficient and doing more with fewer people. The best you can do is adapt and improve your skills.

 

Believe me, I think a lot of what goes on with China is incredibly unfair.

 

I have a customer who makes skateboards. Long story, but some Chinese co's pulled some real dirty stuff trying to learn their secrets of quality and productivity. (Hint: if a Chinese co. offers you a huge order, but wants to "tour" your facility first, beware!).

 

It culminated with the shop foreman catching a Chinese national who sneaked into their facility taking pictures. The foreman confiscated the camera and had a conversation with this spy that I'm sure made his life flash before his eyes

 

In the 1970's we thought everything would be made in Japan. Not. I think the pendelum has swung pretty far towards China, but that pendelum always swings both ways.

 

Learn, adapt, find niches, and get mean competitive. America is still the most dynamic and creative society on earth. It's in our fabric. It's built into our economic system.

 

I say let China make the the $.50 Happy Meal toys. We'll develop the drugs that cure cancer, the hydrogen cars that let the Arabs keep thier oil, and the information technologies that continue to make us connect dots faster and better than anyone. Our best days are ahead.

 

Again, I have great sympathy for those who are being displaced. I'm just saying open your eyes wide, get wise, and go forward with great hope and creativity.

 

[ 01-02-2004, 01:48 PM: Message edited by: Charles Davis ]

[Guest CNC Apps Guy 1]

quote:

---

...China is not the bogeyman here...

---

+1000

 

The real boogey man has been our complacency. Lack of continuous improvement or "... but we've ALWAYS done it that way" - itis.

 

The US auto industry got a good, well deserved pimp slap in the 70's and 80's. Now they are getting on the ball about quality but it took a serious downturn and lack of sales. Mold, Tool and Die apparently need to suffer the same consequences unfortunately. Why learn from other's mistakes when you can make them yourself.

 

When I talk to people here about how long it takes to get a tool made I just cringe. These guys make a career out of one tool almost. 8, 12, 14 weeks for something that should take 4 or 6 at most. These are the very same people complaining about lack of work. Perhaps if they got their butts in gear, got off the milking stool and did some work they'd get some work.

 

Just an observation.

 

[ 01-02-2004, 01:54 PM: Message edited by: James Meyette ]

[Jack Mitchell]

Charles,

 

McDonalds buys the toys for .0002ea. and not the $.50 Happy Meal toys were led to believe.

 

Crying foul about China or Japan buying up US dollars does not hold water for me – sorry, but making the rules and then crying foul when it starts to hurt comes up a little bit short?

I read the marketplace well before any government endorsed idiot does, as I am absolutely sure that the majority of the forum members do as well.

 

We, the uneducated fools that we are, know the score and we also know that we are helpless to change what is being served to us at any given moment.

 

Adaptation to a changing economy or attitude is paramount to succeeding within it – bottom line is to learn to roll with the punches or get punched up rather severely.

 

I cannot comprehend a Chinaman that could ever tackle 10% of what it is that I do, but, throw in a dozen or so, and the going could become a little tough.

Please don’t get me wrong; I ain’t no God and never will be as long as I am in this meager trade.

 

So there it is, spend a quarter million on equipment, be a tough, and prove that you can kick just about anybody’s xxxx without even so much as breaking a sweat. At 48 years, I am as ornery as the day that I was born - I fear not.

 

I am not hacking your response, I am just stating that I am not bowing down to the inevitable, but just accepting that I am not afraid to compete against pretty well anything that comes my way.

 

Damn, my attitude just keeps getting in the way when it comes to working for nothing.

No offense is meant towards my Chinese countryman and if there is one out there that thinks he has the right stuff, then by all means, please bring it to me, cause I got the mojo and the Mazak.

 

Regards, Jack

 

[ 01-02-2004, 02:35 PM: Message edited by: Jack Mitchell ]

[Scott Bond]

HiJack

+1 I am also 48 ,I am an American(USA) I have enough skill sets to compete with you, and I am thinking that if there be Chinese craftsman out there with 30 years worth of propper skill sets, a rock&roll machine , and a will to compete, it won't matter where he might be from . Technology will cost him what it costs you , and he will be able to make anything you can make,, he will also not be able to make the happy meal toy for .0002.

 

If a Mad cow was used on your happy meal, would it be an unhappy meal ?

[Chris Rizzo]

Just getting back on the Forum after a little holiday vacation, and am enjoying this thread.

+1 to ya'll.

 

Charles, I particularly identify with your take:

 

quote:

---

Learn, adapt, find niches, and get mean competitive. America is still the most dynamic and creative society on earth. It's in our fabric. It's built into our economic system.

 

I say let China make the the $.50 Happy Meal toys. We'll develop the drugs that cure cancer, the hydrogen cars that let the Arabs keep thier oil, and the information technologies that continue to make us connect dots faster and better than anyone. Our best days are ahead.

---

However it certainly has become a hard row to sow, especially for those shops who rely on production and manufacturing...but we are the innovators and brains of the planet, and must keep that edge...train, educate, learn, experiment, invent.

[Charles Davis]

We do have to crack down on China and other countries stealing our intellectual property, including software, and BLATANTLY infringing on patents. I'd have a "trade war" over that one.

 

[ 01-02-2004, 05:22 PM: Message edited by: Charles Davis ]

[Charles Davis]

I got this from the Wall Street Journal today. Sounds encouraging:

 

Manufacturing Growth

Is the Best in 20 Years

 

A WALL STREET JOURNAL ONLINE NEWS ROUNDUP

 

 

The manufacturing sector grew for a sixth straight month in December, turning in its best performance in 20 years, the Institute for Supply Management reported Friday. Much of that strength came from new orders but employment, long a concern for the sector, also improved.

 

The ISM's purchasing-managers index, a gauge of overall activity in the sector, climbed to 66.2 from 62.8 in November. That was the best reading since December 1983. Readings above 50 point to expansion in the sector, while those below 50 indicate contraction.

 

Economists had expected the index to come in at 61, according to a survey by Dow Jones Newswires and CNBC.

 

"The strength in December's data provides significant encouragement for prospects in the first quarter of 2004," said Norbert J. Ore, chairman of the ISM's manufacturing-business survey committee, in a prepared statement.

 

If December's 66.2 reading were to be maintained for an extended period of time, it would be consistent with an 8.6% annualized increase in U.S. gross domestic product, the private research group said.

[Guest CNC Apps Guy 1]

Unfortunately that's a war we would not win IMHO. True, we contribute to a fair percentage of their economy but it would raise the stakes and end up really hurting the people we're trying to protect.

 

Our real way to hurt them is to continue to raise the bar on quality, productivity and efficiency. We do that (and we can, we just have to want to change our short-term thinking into long range goals) and the world is our oyster. There's a reason why most all of the "World-Changing" inventions were invented right here in the USA. It's because we are a little piece or every other place in the World.

 

JM2C

[Steel Surgeon]

Gcode

quote:

---

A lot of these Chinese die shops are running bootleg Mastercam. Does Mastercam even have a

licensed reseller in China???

---

How could you possibly know this??? Don't get me wrong I don't agree with them using bootleg software. I can't even tell if the shop next door is using illegal software.

[Guest CNC Apps Guy 1]

quote:

---

How could you possibly know this???

---

Ummmmmm, they are Communists, and Communists have absolutely positively no concept of Property... intellectual or otherwise. Besides that Micorsoft is having a helluva time over there with piracy. So the question begs... if they don't want to pay a few hundred dollars for a OS that's necessary to tun the majority of thier programs what makes anyone think they will pony up tens of thousands of dollars to make their CNC machines run???

 

James teh 1+1=2

 

JM2C

[Jimmy Wakeford from Barefoot CNC]

China has a rep for parenting bootleg stuff.

There are two dealers there now I think, and it is selling well out there.

 

I get excited bout the whole thing though. I live in a town that was a furniture town till recently. We are now a "service" town. I have heard and seen that the US economy is going to be a service economy. What does that mean? I get the jist of it, but prefer to be a mfg econ.

 

How to survive? I suggest reading a book called "Who moved my cheese". Sounds silly but will help you be profitable in the coming years.

 

We can not rely on making money on things we have in the past. Molds from china are cheaper than steel over here. Their quality is getting better in furniture. US companies can have a plant there and are still considered an US company.

 

As always when this topic comes up I will suggest visiting:

www.sam-usa.org

 

Jimmy

[Charles Davis]

Be honest with yourself. When you go to Home Depot, do you buy primarily on price? Most people do. Low price means the production went to the lowest bidder (China).

 

The concept is that if I pay less for a garden hose, that frees up money for me to buy something else, like an XM Radio.

 

On a global scale, that's the way it works. It does mean, though, that certain industries are disrupted in the process.

 

Yes, China bootlegs everything. You can buy movies that have not even been released for like $.50 each in China. China is the grand theft capital of the world. We have to find ways to encrypt intellectual property, but that's another topic.

[Müřlıń®]

quote:

---

Rolling with the punches and learning to adapt to a different manufacturing climate is exactly what we have to do

---

+1 on that.....you must take the knowledge you have and constantly keep moulding it to work for you. Otherwise you might as well just lay down and die.

 

I'm not going down without a fight I can tell ya that.

 

If there is one constant in the universe.....Nothing stays the same......adapt or perish.....

 

I would just like to take a bunch of itching powder and dump it in the pants of all those guys who keep changing the rules on us all the time....

 

I dont blame the Chinese for wanting to be prosperous in the world economy. More power to them. Hell, they have their own problems with being exploited by their own country like it is.

 

I blame all the people who forced buisnesses to go elsewhere in order to make a profit.

 

We only have ourselves to blame for the mess we are in.

 

The big union shops that charge 125 dollars per hr to have some dufus stand there and turn his machine on and freewheel everyday....

 

The large corporations that we all pay our tax dollars to who employ thousands of grossly overpaid individuals that do practicly nothing..

 

The large corporations that work the law and use loopholds to get around what all the honest, hard working people end up suffering for and carring their loads.

 

quote:

---

The dies and tools they make can take up to six months to build at a cost of $35,000 to $500,000 or more. These toolmakers don't get paid while they are making them -- and often must wait several more months until the end user is happy that the tool is making the product to the proper quality.

---

This pretty much sums it up for me....the numbers might be a little less, but the end result is the same.

 

The large corproations force the smaller locals to bankroll their operations and there is nothing we can do about it.

 

I am glad some of you get paid in advance, but that is not what it is like for alot of us out there.

 

I am not taking it laying down I can tell ya that

 

I am just going to take my skills and make them work for me, not them.......

 

Sorry for the book rant......

 

Murlin

[Dan Harris of HD Technologies LLC]

When was the last time you bought a camera, watch, cd player, tape player, television, VCR and come to think of it ; cellphone made in the US? These are just some examples of manufactued products that are not coming back to the US. Come to think of it computers themselves, chips, boards etc all going away. If we were all serious about this we would not buy Happy Meals or go to Wal-Mart. Our only true advantage is better education and entrepreneurial spirit coupled with government regulations that allow that entrepreneurial spirit to thrive. It wont be long until India, China , Vietnam and many other countries have built an infrastructure equal to ours. Yes they bootleg software but so do people over here. The biggest percentage of costs is labour. Therefore if we try to compete on labour costs we will as has been frequently quoted be in a race to the bottom. The larger issue underlying this is security and defence - without a viable manufacturing infrastructure Americas might will be greatly diminished and China's strengthened.

[Guest CNC Apps Guy 1]

quote:

---

The larger issue underlying this is security and defence - without a viable manufacturing infrastructure Americas might will be greatly diminished and China's strengthened.

---

+1000

 

Under normal circumstances I am not a conspiracy theorist, but the whole China thing just makes me wonder if they are trying to destroy our Mfg. infrastructure so they can take over the world militarily.

 

Food For Thought

 

[ 01-02-2004, 07:54 PM: Message edited by: James Meyette ]

[Trevor Bailey]

How can you defend against something that you, the individual, has no control over. Most of us vote for our political leaders. However, it is our political leaders that are the ones prospering under the cloud of "Free Trade". No matter how many ballots come out and we "all" so no to farses like Free Trade, I ask you this question: "Why are there still Free Trade agreements in the works as we speak. Our defense has to start with our politicians actually growing some balls and REALLY speaking for the people. I was on the petition to get Gray Duffas out of California. More things like that should happen all over the US more frequently in my opinion.